Separate brands with a comma. How much more do you consider TSLA will be well worth in a decade? A very significant percentage of my net worth is in TSLA. I’m very assured that TSLA will be well worth more in 10 years than it is today. I would say the chance of it doubling in a decade has ended 95%. Odds of being 5x today is 80%. 10x growth 50%. 20x growth 20%. This is based about how I see TSLA disrupting multiple trillion buck sectors. Others have posted calculations, so I won’t rehash.
This is more of the – What’s your very best guess growth estimation with probabilities of attaining it as you view it thread. The doubt of such long-term estimates make complicated models less relevant. Way too many guesses have to be made out of respect to the guidelines. The business is growing at 50 % per 12 months.
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This seems to be the upper limit because of its growth. The worthiness of the company lags behind that, so let’s speculate 30 %30 % compounded growth. Obviously the growth rate may soften in the years ahead. The ride might be bumpy but let’s just watch how this plays out. The worthiness is expected by me of TSLA to double within the next 3 years.
Whatever you decide to do, don’t put all of your eggs in a single basket, instead, Diversify Investments, Diversify Risks, even by By Age And Work Experience. Understand that TSLA is not the best stock out there and that past performance is not indicative of future results. Everything (trading) boils down to compounding your returns. I second this, but must be discounted back with a higher than normal discount rate credited to execution risk of new tech.
Everything is a guessing game, so make investments wisely. At least will be 10 times like 500B market value. 31.xx believing it experienced a good chance of increasing 10X or more within 5-10 years. We at first hit 10X even faster than I wished for (4.5 years). Funny you should ask that.
I have a related, but different problem: when is it “ok” to get out and not kick myself about it for the rest of my life? At some true point you want to generate income from your success. My initial plan was to market stock form my 2015 long-term account in early 2021 to pay back my mortgage. That’s when I can start taking money out of this without paying taxes.
To do that, I’d only need the stock to be around 415 – but that would be all my ’15 account which is 50% of my TSLA stocks right now. So what is the right time to sell some of those shares? This is exactly what I’ve been considering a lot recently, and this is how it links to the OP question.
If TSLA is double of what it is today in 4 years, is it worth offering 2/3 of my ’15 account? Or does it still have sufficient legs to just keep my stocks and shares for fear of killing the goose that laid the fantastic egg? And if TSLA doubles 4 years after that again is a good time to sell? THEREFORE I think, the greater relevant question may be, just how do we identify when TSLA starts to plateau and we can’t expect any significant benefits going forward. Just what exactly is the right time to sell some of those stocks?