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The future is unknowable, I often remind myself after i make investments. In August I explained in my own blog my WLP holding and why despite Obamacare I am bullish on WLP. Several posters called me ignorant, except they didn’t use the word ignorant. WLP is stressed out (it has a P/E of 8 after all) therefore the majority sentiment is negative. The prevailing sentiment today is to shun risk for safe havens.
- Put €11 billion extra on deposit
- 4 Year CD – 3.10%
- Ask for facts/ figures and terms
- The market risk premium is measured by
- 6 years back from South Africa
- 5 letter term is “Enjoy” which means fund as well
- The offer record
Safe havens are US authorities bonds, silver and high yield stocks. I recently wrote about another keeping: Intel. Both WLP and Intel are active buyers of their own stock by issuing debts. Their bonds mostly yield less than 4%, and their earnings yield 10%. So why not pay 4% to get back 10%? This is possible because investors, despite monetary easing by the Fed, are crowding out safe havens.
I don’t observe how this won’t end badly. Bond buys are eventually going to suffer zero or negative comes back if inflation accumulates to the 3-4% range. I wish to be on the other side of this trade. A lot of my investments, like Mircosoft, Wellpoint, Intel, AIG and Sears Holdings are issuing debt and purchasing stock at the same time back.
I also like housing for a small trader to easily do a similar thing. Housing can be considered a dangerous investment, as the world has recently learned. But now, I love US owner occupied housing for a little investor to easily be on the other side of the debt trade.
In the united states now, casing is approximately at the 2003 nominal price level. But considering real values by factoring inflation, housing is 19% cheaper than in 2003! US property owner home loan rates are about 2.75% and 3.50% for 15 and 30 season terms, respectively. Typical property tax rates are 1% of home value.